POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CROP SUITABILITY IN NIGERIA

Authors
  • Ilesanmi, O. A.

    Federal University OyeEkiti, Nigeria

  • Egbebiyi, T. S.

    University of Cape Town, South Africa

  • Oguntunde P. G.

    , Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria

  • Olubanjo, O. O

    Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria

  • Akinwumiju, A. S

    Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria

Keywords:
climate change, CORDEX, crop suitability, ecocrop, SIV
Abstract

In Nigeria, where agriculture is a key source of income and uses rainfall as its primary water source for agricultural production, climate change has a severe negative influence on crop productivity. This study aims to establish the impact of changing climate on the suitability of cassava, rice and soybean production in Nigeria and detail these impacts. Ten Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Models (GCMs), downscaled by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), were applied to carry out the crop suitability simulation using the suitability model, Ecocrop. The model shows that crop suitability is changing under projected future scenarios, and the changes in suitability are going to have major effects on cassava, rice and soybean production in the country. The Suitability Index Value (SIV) of the three crops was predicted to reduce by up to 0.35, which also translates to a reduction in the production areas of these crops.  Climate change would likely lead to a delay in the planting season of these crops by 1–2 months across Nigeria, except for the swampy regions that will experience early planting by up to two months. The study is pertinent for preparing for future changes in crop adaptability and planting month to increase food security in the nation as well as for short- and long-term adaption alternatives.

Author Biographies
  1. Ilesanmi, O. A., Federal University OyeEkiti, Nigeria

    Department of Agricultural and Bioresources Engineering

  2. Egbebiyi, T. S., University of Cape Town, South Africa

    Department of Environmental and Geographical Science

  3. Oguntunde P. G., , Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria

    Department of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering

  4. Olubanjo, O. O, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria

    Department of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering

  5. Akinwumiju, A. S, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria

    Department of  Remote Sensing and Geoscience Information System

References

Abah, Roland and Petja, Brilliant.(2016). Crop Suitability Mapping for Rice, Cassava, and Yam

in North Central Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Science. 9. 96-108.

Abiodun, B. J., Makhanya, N., Petja, B., Abatan, A. A. and Oguntunde, P. G. (2019). Future

projection of droughts over major river basins in Southern Africa at specific global warming levels. Theoretical Applied Climatology 137, 1785–1799

Ara, I., Lewis, M., and Ostendorf, B. (2016). Spatio?temporal analysis of the impact of climate,

cropping intensity and means of irrigation: an assessment on rice yield determinants in Bangladesh. Agric and Food Security, 5 (12) 1-11

Bao, Y., Hoogenboom, G., McClendon, R., and Urich, P. (2015). Soybean production in 2025

and 2050 in the southeastern USA based on the SimCLIM and the CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean models. Climate Research, 63(1), 73–89.

Beveridge, L., Whitfield, S. and Challinor, A. (2018) Crop modelling: Towards locally relevant

and climate-informed adaptation. Climatic Change, 147:475–489.

Blein, R., Soulé, B.G., FaivreDupaigre, B. and Yérima, B. (2008). Agricultural Potential of West

Africa. Farm Foundation, ECOWAS. February, Available: http://www.fondation-farm.org/IMG/pdf/potentialites_rapport_ang_mp.pdf.

Caetano, J. M., Tessarolo, G., de Oliveira G., Souza KdSe, Diniz-Filho J. A. F. and Nabout,J. C.

(2018). Geographical patterns in climate and agricultural technology drive soybean productivity in Brazil. PLoS ONE 13(1), 1-16.

Chemura A, Schauberger B and Gornott C. (2020). Impacts of climate change on agro-climatic

suitability of major food crops in Ghana. PLoS ONE 15(6), 1-21.

Chhogyel N, Ghimirayn M and Subedi K. (2018).Crop suitability modeling for rice underfuture

climate scenario in Bhutan. Bhutanese Journal of Agriculture 1 (1): 49-57.

Chiaka J. C, Zhen L and Xiao Y. (2022). Changing Food Consumption Patterns and Land

Requirements for Food in the Six Geopolitical Zones in Nigeria. Foods. 2022; 11(150), 1-18.

Eakin H. (2005). Institutional change, climate risk, and rural vulnerability: cases from Central

Mexico. World Dev 33(11):1923–1938

Egbebiyi, T.S.; Crespo, O.; Lennard, C. (2019).Defining Crop–climate Departure in West Africa:

Improved Understanding of the Timing of Future Changes in Crop Suitability. Climate, 7(9):1–19.

Egbebiyi, T.S., Lennard, C., Crespo, O., Mukwenha, P, Shakirudeen, L, Quagraine, K.(2019b).

Assessing Future Spatio-Temporal Changes in Crop Suitability and Planting Season over West Africa: Using the Concept of Crop-Climate Departure. Climate. 7(9):1–30.

Ene-Obong, H.N., Sanusi, R.A., Udenta, E.A., Williams, I.O., Anigo, K.M., Chibuzo,

E.C.,Aliyu, H.M., Ekpe, O.O. and Davidson, G.I. (2013). Data collection and assessment of commonly consumed foods and recipes in six geo-political zones in Nigeria: Important for the development of a National Food Composition Database and Dietary Assessment. Food Chem. 2013, 140, 539–546.

Hijmans, R.J., Guarino, L., Cruz, M. and Rojas, E. (2001). Computer tools for spatial analysis of

plant genetic resources data: 1. DIVA-GIS. Plant Genetic Resources Newsletter,. 127:15–19.

IFAD (2021). What can smallholder farmers grow in a warmer world? Climate change and

future crop suitability in East and Southern Africa.

Ilesanmi, O. A., Oguntunde, P. G. and Olufayo, A. A. (2012).Re-examination of the BMN model

for estimating evapotranspiration. International Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, 2(6): 268-272.

Ilesanmi, O. A., Oguntunde, P. G. and Olubanjo, O. O. (2021). Modelling the Impacts of

Climate Change on the Yield of Crops. Journal of Digital Food, Energy and Water Systems 2 (2). 55-76.

Ilesanmi, O. A., Oguntunde, P. G. and Olubanjo, O. O. (2023). Assessing the impact of climate

change on crop water requirements in Nigeria. Agricultural Engineering International: CIGR Journal, 25(3): 1-21.

Issifou Moumouni, Y., Kindjinou, T. A.,Adougan, B., Hounkanrin, B., Koumassi, H., Ezin,A.

V., Yabi, I. and Ogouwale, E. (2022). Impact of climate change on the dynamics of soyabean (Glycine max) (L.) Merr. Production areas in the second agricultural development pole of the Sudanian region of Benin (West Africa).Legume Science,1–12.

Jarvis, A., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Campo, B.V.H. and Navarro-Racines, C. (2012). Is Cassava the

Answer to African Climate Change Adaptation? Tropical Plant Biology. 5(1):9–29.

Mall, R. K., Lalb, M., Bhatia, V.S., Rathore, L.S. and Singh, R. (2003). Mitigating climate

change impact on soyabean productivity in India: a simulation study. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 121 (2004): 113–125.

Manners, R., Vandamme, E., Adewopo, J., Thornton, P., Friedmann, M., Carpentier, S., Ezui,K.

S. and Thiele, G. (2021). Suitability of root, tuber, and banana crops in Central Africa can be favoured under future climates, Agricultural Systems, 193, 1-15.

Olubanjo, O. O. (2019). Climate Variation Assessment Based on Rainfall and Temperature in

Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria. Applied Research Journal of Environmental Engineering, 2(1), 1-18.

Ramirez-Villegas, J., Jarvis, A. and Läderach, P. (2013). Empirical approaches for assessing

impacts of climate change on agriculture: The EcoCrop model and a case study with grain sorghum. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.170, 67-78.

Ray, D. K, Gerber J. S., MacDonald G. K., West P. C. (2015). Climate variation explains a third

of global crop yield variability. Nature communications. 6, 1-9.

Serdeczny, O., Adams, S., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Hare, W., Schaeffer, M. and

Perrette, M. (2017). Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions. Regional Environmental Change. 17(6):1585–1600.

Smith P, Clark H, Dong H, Elsiddig E, Haberl H and Harper R. (2014) Agriculture, forestry and

other land use (AFOLU).

Traoré, L., Bello, O. D., Chabi, F., Balogoun, I., Yabi, I., Issifou, M. Y., and Saïdou, A. (2021).

Modelling of Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) growing areas under current and future climate in the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of Mali. American Journal of Climate Change,10(2), 185–203.

Ugbah, P.A., Olaniyan, O., Francis, S.D. and James, A. (2020). Impact of Climate Change on

Growing Season in Nigeria: Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) as Assessment and Adaptation Tool. In: Leal Filho, W. (eds) Handbook of Climate Change Resilience. Springer, Cham. 2743-2769.

Wichern J., Descheemaeker K., Giller K. E., Ebanyat P., Taulya G., and Mark T. Van

Wijk. (2019). Vulnerability and adaptation options to climate change for rural livelihoods – A country-wide analysis for Uganda. Agricultural Systems, 176, 1-14.

World Bank. (2021) http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development

indicators. Accessed on 6th July, 2021

www.fao.org/nigeria/fao-in-nigeria/nigeria-at-a-glance/en/ (Accessed on 27th July, 2023)

Zhao, C., B. Liu, S. Piao, X. Wang, D.B. Lobell, Y. Huang, M. Huang, Y. Yao, S. Bassu,

P.Ciais, J.-L. Durand, J. Elliott, F. Ewert, I.A. Janssens, T. Li, E. Lin, Q. Liu, P. Martre, C. Müller, S. Peng, J. Peñuelas, A.C. Ruane, D. Wallach, T.

Wang, D. Wu, Z. Liu, Y. Zhu, Z. Zhu, and S. Asseng, 2017: Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 114, no. 35, 9326-9331.

Cover Image
Downloads
Published
2024-05-20
Section
Articles
License

Copyright (c) 2024 FUTA JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Copyright

With the submission of a manuscript, the corresponding author confirms that the manuscript is not under consideration by another journal. With the acceptance of a manuscript, the Journal reserves the exclusive right of publication and dissemination of the information contained in the article. The veracity of the paper and all the claims therein is solely the opinion of the authors not the journal.

How to Cite

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CROP SUITABILITY IN NIGERIA. (2024). FUTA JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY, 18(1), 18-23. https://doi.org/10.51459/futajeet.2024.18.1.504

Similar Articles

1-10 of 31

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.