POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CROP SUITABILITY IN NIGERIA
- Authors
-
-
Ilesanmi, O. A.
Federal University OyeEkiti, Nigeria
-
Egbebiyi, T. S.
University of Cape Town, South Africa
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Oguntunde P. G.
, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria
-
Olubanjo, O. O
Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria
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Akinwumiju, A. S
Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria
-
- Keywords:
- climate change, CORDEX, crop suitability, ecocrop, SIV
- Abstract
-
In Nigeria, where agriculture is a key source of income and uses rainfall as its primary water source for agricultural production, climate change has a severe negative influence on crop productivity. This study aims to establish the impact of changing climate on the suitability of cassava, rice and soybean production in Nigeria and detail these impacts. Ten Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Models (GCMs), downscaled by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), were applied to carry out the crop suitability simulation using the suitability model, Ecocrop. The model shows that crop suitability is changing under projected future scenarios, and the changes in suitability are going to have major effects on cassava, rice and soybean production in the country. The Suitability Index Value (SIV) of the three crops was predicted to reduce by up to 0.35, which also translates to a reduction in the production areas of these crops. Climate change would likely lead to a delay in the planting season of these crops by 1–2 months across Nigeria, except for the swampy regions that will experience early planting by up to two months. The study is pertinent for preparing for future changes in crop adaptability and planting month to increase food security in the nation as well as for short- and long-term adaption alternatives.
- Author Biographies
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